Bjorkman-Nyqvist, M., Corno, L., de Walque, D. & Svensson, J. (2017 forthcoming). Incentivizing safer sexual behaviour: Evidence from a randomized control trial on HIV prevention. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.

Borra, C., González, L. & Sevilla, A. (2017 forthcoming). The Impact of Scheduling Birth Early on Infant Health. Journal of the European Economic Association.

De Neve JE., Ward G., Van Landeghem B., De Keulenaer F., Kavetsos G. & Nor- ton M. (2017 forthcoming). The asymmetric experience of positive and negative economic growth: Global evidence using subjective well-being data. Review of Economics & Statistics.

Gutiérrez-Romero, R. & Oviedo M. (2017 forthcoming). The good the bad and the ugly: The socio-economic impact of drug cartels and their violence in Mexico. Journal of Economic Geography.

This paper assesses the impact that drug cartels and their associated violence have had on development in Mexico. For this purpose, we monitored official and media reports to identify where cartels have operated with and without drug related homicides. Using the difference-in-difference kernel matching method, we find that on the one hand, inequality declined in areas where cartels were active without incidents of drug related homicides. On the other, poverty increased in areas that had both the lowest and the highest rates of drug related homicides. Two reasons could explain this increase in poverty. In the most violent areas, production, profits, remunerations per employee, the number of establishments and employees declined in key industries, such as manufacturing. In the least violent areas remunerations in manufacturing also declined, and people migrated from the more violent places. Most of these migrants were mainly of low income.

Gutiérrez-Romero, R. and Méndez, L. (2017 forthcoming). Does inequality foster or hinder the growth of entrepreneurship in the long run? Research on Economic Inequality, 25.

This article assesses the extent to which historical levels of inequality affect the creation and survival of businesses over time. To this end, we use the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey across 66 countries over 2005–2011. We complement this survey with data on income inequality dating back to early 1800s and current institutional environment, such as the number of procedures to start a new business, countries’ degree of financial inclusion, corruption and political stability. We find that although inequality increases the number of firms created out of need, inequality reduces entrepreneurial activity as in net terms businesses are less likely to be created and survive over time. These findings are robust to using different measures of inequality across different points in time and regions, even if excluding Latin America the most unequal region in the world. Our evidence then supports theories that argue early conditions, crucially inequality, influence development path.

Ladi, S. & Tsarouhas, D. (2017 forthcoming). The International Diffusion of Regulatory Governance: EU Actorness in Public Procurement. Regulation and Governance.

Ladi, S., Lazarou, E. & Hauck, J. (2018 forthcoming). Brazilian Think-Tanks and the Rise of Austerity Discourse. Policy & Society



Adler M., Dolan P., and Kavetsos G. (2017). Would you choose to be happy? Trade- offs between happiness and the other dimensions of life in a large population survey. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 139, 60-73.

Bagnai, A., Granville, B. & Mongeau, C. (2017). Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model. Economic Modelling, 64, pp. 524-538.

This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of Italy withdrawing from the euro area by means of stochastic simulations of a macroeconometric model. The model considers the effect of devaluation on output, sovereign debt valuation, and the development of bilateral economic relations between Italy and its major trade partners. The simulation results are consistent with the findings of recent applied research: the Italian economy would follow the V-shaped pattern observed in most currency crises. After an initial period of stress, and provided an appropriate set of countercyclical policy measures is implemented, real GDP would recover and resume growth at a reasonable pace. In particular, while the expected positive impact of nominal exchange rate realignment on external balance would be transitory, higher nominal growth would bring about a persistent reduction in unemployment and the public debt-to-GDP ratio. These results are robust to a set of sensitivity checks, considering a number of adverse circumstances such as exchange rate overshooting, financial panic, supply-side constraints, and the application of retaliatory tariffs.

Granville, B. & Hussain, S. (2017). Eurozone cycles: an analysis of phase synchronizationInternational Journal of Finance and Economics, 22, pp. 83-114.

This paper analyses synchronization, both across and between business and financial cycles (growth and classical) in a subset of 10 countries representative of the Economic and Monetary Union. Employing an extended data set from 1960 to 2013, we find evidence of synchronization across financial cycles. In case of business cycles, we find contrasting results: There is significant synchronization across growth cycles but no evidence of a common classical cycle. This confirms, first, that economic and financial variables in the Economic and Monetary Union behave differently and, second, that synchronization in business cycles arises from synchronized deviations from the trend, but the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals are not in synch. Furthermore, we adopt a novel approach to break down our full sample period into smaller subperiods to follow the evolution of synchronization over time. Our results highlight the role played by the monetary union in further increasing macroeconomic divergences.

Granville, B. (2017). Lessons from the collapse of the Ruble Zone and the transferable Ruble system. CESifo Forum, 17(4), pp. 19-26.



Borra, C., Gonzalez, L. and Sevilla, A. (2016). Birth Timing and Neonatal Health. American Economic Review, 106(5): 329-32.

We take advantage of a new natural experiment to evaluate the health effects of scheduling birth early for non-medical reasons on infant health. In 2010, the cancellation of a generous child benefit in Spain led may families to schedule birth early in order to remain eligible for the subsidy. We document that the affected cohort of children did not suffer any increase in birth complications or medical conditions right at birth, but were significantly more likely to be admitted to hospital during their second and third weeks of life, suggesting potentially persistent negative health effects.

Dolan P. & Kavetsos G. (2016). Happy talk: Mode of administration effects on subjective well-being. Journal of Happiness Studies, 17(3), 1273-1291.

Gennaioli, C. & Tavoni, M. (2016). Clean or Dirty Energy; Evidence of Corruption in the Renewable Energy Sector. Public Choice, 166:3.

This paper studies the link between public policy and corruption for the case of wind energy. We show that publicly subsidized renewable energy can attract criminal appetites and favor the formation of criminal associations between entrepreneurs and politicians able to influence the licensing process. The insights of a simple model of political influence by interest groups are tested empirically using Italian data for the period 1990-2007. Using a diference in diference approach we quantify the impact of a Green Certificate policy aimed at supporting renewables, and find robust evidence that criminal association activity increased more in windy provinces after the introduction of the generous policy regime. The magnitude of the effect is large: the construction of an average wind park is associated with an increase of criminal association activity of 6% in the treatment compared to the control group. Our findings show that in the presence of poor institutions, even well designed market-based policies can have an adverse impact. The analysis is relevant for countries which are generally characterized by heavy  bureacracies, weak institutions and by large renewable potential.

Gutiérrez-Romero, R. (2016). Estimating the impact of Mexican drug cartels and drug-related homicides on crime and perceptions of safety. Journal of Economic Geography, 16:(4).

We estimate the impact of drug cartels and drug-related homicides on crime and perceptions of security in Mexico. Since the location where drug cartels operate might be endogenous, we combine the difference-in-difference estimator with instrumental variables. Using surveys on crime victimization we find that people living in areas that experienced drug-related homicides are more likely to take extra security precautions. Yet, these areas are also more likely to experience certain crimes, particularly thefts and extortions. In contrast, these crimes and perceptions of insecurity do not change in areas where cartels operate without leading to drug-related homicides.

Nollenberger, N., Rodriguez-Planas, N. and Sevilla, A. (2016). The Math Gender Gap: The Role of Culture. American Economic Review, 106(5): 257-261.

This paper investigates the effect of gender-related culture on the math gender gap by analysing math test scores of second-generation immigrants, who are all exposed to a common set of host country laws and institutions. We find that immigrant girls whose parents come from more gender-equal countries perform better (relative to similar boys) than immigrant girls whose parents come from less gender-equal countries, suggesting an important role of cultural beliefs on the role of women in society on the math gender gap. The transmission of cultural beliefs accounts for at least two thirds of the overall contribution of gender-related factors.

Ugur, M., Trushin, E., Solomon, E. & Guidi, F. (2016). R&D and productivity in OECD firms and industries: A hierarchical meta-regression analysis. Research Policy, 45(10), pp. 2069-2086.

The relationship between R&D investment and firm/industry productivity has been investigated widely following seminal contributions by Zvi Griliches and others from late 1970s onwards. We aim to provide a systematic synthesis of the evidence, using 1253 estimates from 65 primary studies that adopt the so-called primal approach. In line with prior reviews, we report that the average elasticity and rate-of-return estimates are positive. In contrast to prior reviews, however, we report that: (i) the estimates are smaller and more heterogeneous than what has been reported before; (ii) residual heterogeneity remains high among firm-level estimates even after controlling for moderating factors; (iii) firm-level rates of return and within-industry social returns to R&D are small and do not differ significantly despite theoretical predictions of higher social returns; and (iv) the informational content of both elasticity and rate-of-return estimates needs to be interpreted cautiously. We conclude by highlighting the implications of these findings for future research and evidence-based policy.

Ugur, M., Trushin, E. & Solomon, E. (2016). Inverted-U relationship between R&D intensity and survival: evidence on scale and complementarity effects in UK data. Research Policy, 45(7), pp. 1474-1492.

Existing evidence on the relationship between R&D intensity and firm survival is varied and often conflicting. We argue that this may be due to overlooking R&D scale effects and complementarity between R&D intensity and market concentration. Drawing on Schumpeterian models of competition and innovation, we address these issues by developing a formal model of firm survival and using a panel dataset of 37,930 of R&D-active UK firms over 1998–2012. We report the following findings: (i) the relationship between R&D intensity and firm survival follows an inverted-U pattern that reflects diminishing scale effects; (ii) R&D intensity and market concentration are complements in that R&D-active firms have longer survival time if they are in more concentrated industries; and (iii) creative destruction as proxied by median R&D intensity in the industry and the premium on business lending have negative effects on firm survival. Other findings concerning age, size, productivity, relative growth, Pavitt technology classes and the macroeconomic environment are in line with the existing literature. The results are strongly or moderately robust to different samples, stepwise estimations, and controls for frailty and left truncation.

Zenko Z., Ekkekakis P. & Kavetsos G. (2016). Changing minds: Bounded rationality and heuristic processes in exercise-related judgments and decisions. Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology, 5(4), 337-351.